Study identifies the US states with the steepest warming since 1980
Science & technology · 30 October 2026
The rise in global average temperature is not distributed uniformly. To turn the global figure into information useful for local planning, MIT researchers analysed the MERRA-2 and ERA5 climate datasets from 1980 to 2022, calculating monthly state-level trends in daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures.
Alaska showed the largest historical increase in monthly averaged daily maximum temperature, about 2.5 degrees Celsius for each degree of global warming. Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada were also among the states with the steepest trends. Hawaii had the lowest average, near 0.8 degrees, and warming was strongest in summer and autumn, particularly September and November.
The dataset can help target adaptation in health, agriculture, ecosystems, and infrastructure where risk thresholds may arrive sooner. It is not a precise local forecast: state averages can conceal substantial internal differences. The authors nevertheless expect these patterns broadly to persist while global emissions continue to raise temperatures.
Source: Mark Dwortzan · MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy.